Whether South Africa's agriculture does have any future in global markets in the face of deepening geopolitical frictions among major economies, it all depends on what the country's leaders do to prepare for an uncertain future.
This was the opinion of Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz), on Monday.
Sihlobo said success was not guaranteed.
“It is a product of the combination of a clear reading of today's trends and how these will shape the future of global markets, how they envision South Africa's place in this fast-changing global economic order, the choice of policy actions, and daring speed.
“What made us successful yesterday may not be adequate for the challenges ahead,” Sihlobo said.
Agbiz said South Africa stood at a crossroads where a bold, export-driven strategy was no longer optional but essential.
The agricultural organisation said as the global trade landscape shifted, with nations forging ahead through plurilateral deals and free trade agreements, the urgency for South Africa to secure its place in an uncertain global economy had never been greater.
“We cannot afford complacency nor expect fortune to favour us without action. Already, half of South Africa's agricultural production by value is exported -- a testament to our potential,” it said.
“But to power ahead and secure our prosperity for the long term, we must not only protect our existing agricultural markets but aggressively seek out new opportunities in Asia, the Middle East, and beyond.
“An overhaul of our trade approach is vital, especially in agriculture, to stay competitive and be attuned to the evolving global economy.”
South Africa is said to have enjoyed great fortunes in the past precisely because it worked hard to sustain the competitiveness of its agriculture and corner vital international markets.
South Africa is the only African country in the top 40 global agricultural exporters, ranked 32nd last year.
“Imagine how far we could go if we were to put more effort into honing a robust global competitiveness strategy and diversify our trade relations through well-considered free trade agreements and plurilateral deals,” Sihlobo said.
“Currently, the African continent accounts for 40% of South Africa's agricultural exports, with the EU making up nearly 20% and the UK making up about 7%.
“These impressive numbers represent the efforts we made in the past. Yet, we cannot be complacent if we want to sustain our edge.
“There is nothing currently that we are doing on the global front that suggests we are inventing a better future. This requires that we are bullish, deliberate, and do things differently.”
Sihlobo said that geopolitics were driving global trade fragmentation and thus threatening the export success SA has enjoyed -- a cold reality it must face head-on, not with ideology but pragmatism.
“This is true for all the export sectors of the economy. For its part, the South African agricultural sector should have a refreshed trade strategy, which will guide the country's posture with various regions, especially to broaden the footprint in Asia and the Middle East,” he said.
“Our trade strategy should be let loose on all pillars – free trade agreements, plurilateral engagements, and multilateral trade fronts.”
Meanwhile, according to the latest data from the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA, 2024), production of both apples and pears was expected to record significant increases in the 2023/24 season compared to the 2022/23 season.
Similarly, exports and imports of both apples and pears were also forecast to increase notably. The increase in global production of apples was attributed to increases in the US, which was set to offset losses in the EU and Turkey.
BUSINESS REPORT