As widely expected, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) made an upward revision to its 2022/23 harvest estimate with the country’s biggest staple, maize, coming in at 15.89 million tons which was marginally higher than the February estimate, according to Paul Makube, the senior agricultural economist at FNB Agribusiness.
He said this was largely on the back of a strong tail-off of the summer rainfall season, which boosted crop prospects.
"The total maize including the non-commercial crop now sits comfortably at 16.55 million tons, and considering a local consumption of 11.8 million tons, South Africa goes into 2023/24 season with a good carry over stock. Soybeans were the biggest gainers with a 1.7% jump in harvest estimate to another record high of 2.76 million tons," Makube said.
Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said the CEC's data released on Wednesday reaffirmed their optimism about South Africa's 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds production season.
Maize production is estimated at 15.9 million tonnes, up slightly from last month's estimate and 3% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest. The current harvest is the third-largest harvest on record. The harvest improvement is primarily on the back of expected large yields, as the area planted is slightly down from the 2021/22 season.
About 8.4 million tonnes is white maize, with 7.5 million tonnes being yellow maize. A crop of 15.9 million tonnes implies that South Africa will have sufficient supplies to meet domestic needs of roughly 11.4 million tonnes and remain with about 3.0 million tonnes for export markets in the 2023/24 marketing year that starts in May," Sihlobo said.
The data released by the CEC in March placed South Africa's 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds production at 19.6 million tonnes, up 2% from the February figure and 5% higher than the previous season. This was primarily on the back of expected higher yields as the overall planted area for summer grains and oilseeds were 4.4 million hectares, roughly unchanged from the previous season.
Moreover, the soybeans harvest was lifted by 2% from the March estimate to a record 2.8 million tonnes. The crop improvement was attributed to an expansion in the area planted and the expected higher yields.
Sihlobo said the expected large harvest meant South Africa could meet its domestic demand and remain with just more than 300 000 tonnes of soybeans for export markets.
"This soybean export expansion is a new territory for South Africa, which until recently, had been a net importer of soybeans and soybean products, and positive for the agricultural trade balance."
Agbiz said the sunflower seed production estimate remained unchanged from last month at 797 610 tonnes (down 6% y/y).
"The annual decline in the sunflower seed production forecast mirrors the reduced planted area and yields in some areas. Other small crops, such as sorghum and groundnuts, have a reasonably large expected harvest of 107 180 tonnes (up 4% y/y) and 49 080 tonnes (up by 1% y/y), respectively."
Sihlobo said overall, South Africa's 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds were maturing, and some areas were nearing harvest.
"Notably, these data bodes well with the already softening maize prices, now hovering around R3 600 per tonne, roughly down by 20% from a year ago. Sunflower seed and soybean prices have also softened at the same rate, and spot prices are currently trading around R8 442 per tonne and R7 424 per tonne, respectively," Sihlobo said.
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