Global stockpiles of rice, which are at close to record levels, are set to fall 5% as the El Niño weather pattern brings hotter and drier weather to Asia, according to Graphic News.
The arrival of the El Niño weather pattern this year is set to test reserves of rice, despite them being at almost record highs.
The change in climate will bring hotter and drier conditions to Asia, which produces and consumes 90% of global rice supplies.
This year’s harvest is expected to be lower than normal, eating into global stockpiles by around 5% – falling from 182 million tonnes in 2022 to 173 million tonnes in 2023.
As nations become wary of El Niño, Vietnam, the world’s third-largest exporter of rice, has seen shipments to the Philippines go up by 40%, China by 70% and Indonesia by 2 500%.
Looking at South Africa, South African climate experts this week called on governments, businesses and communities to increase their awareness of the pending El Niño that was currently manifesting in the central Pacific Ocean.
Professor Willem Landman from the University of Pretoria explained that the challenge was that while there is a well-understood relationship between El Niño and extreme weather in South Africa, this was not a straightforward relationship and the extent of impacts varied greatly.
However, most previous droughts in the summer rainfall regions of the country, and seasons with a high frequency of heat waves days, were associated with El Niño events, Landman said.
Meanwhile, Agricultural Business Chamber chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said this week that the relatively weaker rand exchange remained an upside risk to price of rice as South Africa was a net importer of this product.
This as a 10kg of rice is 2% more expensive in South Africa than a year ago. According to the May Household Affordability index, produced by the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity, rice in May cost R130.20 from R133.03 the prior year at the same period.
Last month InfoQuest/TrendER, a leading South African online research company, surveyed 300 respondents nationally, to assess where consumers are cutting back on groceries.
It found the tough economic conditions had resulted in South Africans finding ways to curb spending where they can.
The household grocery bill was no exception, with consumers cutting back on spending in most grocery categories.
The category most impacted was Snacks/biscuits/sweets/desserts, with one in two consumers stating that they had reduced spending in this category over the past six months, however, rice and pasta were the least affected categories.
Graphic News and Philippa Larkin