Forecasts of an El Niño occurrence in the 2023/24 summer outlook should not necessarily imply less investment in agriculture or elevated risk, says Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz).
Such fears were likely to bring up memories of the harsh drought in the 2015/16 production season, where maize output fell to 7.8 million tonnes, soy beans at 742 000 tonnes and sunflower seeds faring better at 755 000 tonnes as farmers switched white maize hectares to sunflower seed and cotton in the western regions of South Africa.
“That season, the livestock industry, various field crops and horticulture also suffered major losses across the country. Importantly, the 2015/16 season was preceded by a drier production period in 2014/15, and soil moisture was too low in various regions. Thus, the fall in yields was notable,” Sihlobo said.
El Niño follows a rare consecutive four years of heavy rains that have improved soil moisture and natural grazing veld.
“This means there was a natural cushion for agricultural activity, even if the rains were below the average (typically around 500mm) in South Africa. What would be necessary, however, was for the showers to fall in critical periods, such as seed germination and pollination stages of growth, which were all essential for crop growing,” Agbiz said.
It would not be South Africa’s first time in such a fortunate position, it said.
“The summer of 2018/19 had a weather El Niño event. Still, the rains fell in critical periods, and South Africa attained a decent crop harvest, with commercial maize at 11.2 million tonnes, soy beans at 1.2 million tonnes and sunflower seed at 678 000 tonnes. Other field crops and horticulture also achieved decent yields that year. Notably, the 2018/19 season was not preceded with favourable four years of favourable rainfall that improved soil moisture,” Agbiz said.
Therefore, the current position was said to be better than the most recent El Niño period.
Sihlobo said that overall, the South African, and southern African agricultural sector faced a slightly drier 2023/24 summer season.
However, this should not ring the alarm about the sector’s prospects or scare investors and financiers away.
“The current conditions are different from recent droughts. There is good soil moisture, and grazing veld has improved for livestock. The key will be planting at the correct times when the rains can support the germination of the crop and pollination around February. South African farmers have the machinery and weather forecasting capabilities to achieve such timing,” he said.
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