The weather outlook is a downside risk to production for the upcoming summer crop season, says Agricultural Business Chamber(Agbiz) chief economist Wandile Sihlobo.
He said, however, it was forecast not to be severe due to better soil moisture following a rare consecutive four years of heavy rains
This as South Africa's 2022/23 summer crop season drew to a close, with the focus shifting towards the 2023/24 production season commencing in October.
Preliminary insights suggested that an El Niño could bring below-normal rainfall, but South Africa could still have a decent season. The improved soil moisture following four consecutive seasons of rain would help support crop and horticulture production as well as grazing conditions.
Although there was no evidence of its occurrence in South Africa this coming summer, one factor that concerned Agbiz was the possibility of extreme heat.
Various countries in Europe and regions of the US experienced extreme heat this summer, which has proved challenging for agriculture at certain times. When the 2023/24 summer crop season started in South Africa, monitoring temperatures and the impact on crops after that would be necessary.
Sihlobo said the favourable soil moisture conditions would be a natural cushion for agricultural activity even if the rains were below the average (typically around 500 mm) in South Africa. What will be necessary, however, was for the showers to fall during critical periods such as the seed germination and pollination stages of growth, all essential for crop growing.
“It would not be South Africa's first time in such a fortunate position. The summer of 2018/19 had an El Niño weather event. Still, the rains fell in critical periods, and South Africa attained a decent crop harvest, with commercial maize at 11.2 million tonnes. Other field crops and horticulture also achieved decent yields that year,” Sihlobo said.
In the past few weeks, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecast South Africa's 2023/24 maize production at 15.6 million tons, down marginally from the current crop of 16.4 million tons.
The United States Department of Agriculture's Pretoria office recently released forecast placing South Africa's 2023/24 maize production at 15.8 million tons, marginally above the IGC's figures.
Agbiz said soil moisture was currently good. The agricultural organisation said while they were optimistic about the upcoming season, they doubted the crop could be this large, and saw 13 to 14 million tons as more likely.
Beyond the weather outlook, Agbiz said, the farmers were also ready as they continued to receive high volumes of tractors ordered in the past few months on the back of income of the favourable seasons.
“For example, in the first six months of this year, South Africa's tractor sales amounted to 4 061 units, down marginally by 2% from the corresponding period in 2022... they also signal farmers' confidence about the sector's outlook beyond the El Niño worries.”
Sihlobo said it was worth noting that farmers would be on the fields with much better input costs this year than in the past season.
For example, most agrochemicals prices were down by roughly 15% year-on-year. In addition, fertiliser prices were down by about 50% compared to last year. This softening of input costs made production conditions far better for farmers when considering that fertiliser accounts for a third of grain farmers' input costs and other agrochemicals account for roughly 13%.
“In the coming weeks, we will have more regular temperature updates, allowing us to assess the evolution of the El Niño risk and its likely impact,” Sihlobo said.
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