By Roger Eskinazi
Bitcoin prices have fallen sharply lower on Monday, hit by the wave of risk aversion sweeping across markets on the back of Trump’s tariff announcements last week.
Risk markets across the board have recoiled heavily, with many gapping lower at the weekly open as traders brace for another week of severe price declines.
Bitcoin futures have now broken down to fresh YTD lows after the gap lower and are now down more than 11% from Friday’s closing price.
The sell off puts an end to the resilience we’d seen across crypto prices last week which were holding up despite the wider risk off tone. On the back of the breakdown this week, risks are now pointed firmly towards continued losses with BTC now testing the 74,655 level which had been a key resistance level for much of 2024.
Bearish Risks for Bitcoin
With US recession risks now soaring in the wake of the tariff announcements, risk assets look poised to plunge further near-term.
Industry data shows over $250 million worth of BTC longs being liquidated in the last 24hrs, with the figure continuing to rise as the market pushes lower.
Near-term, there is little to offer hope for BTC bulls beyond the market hitting a point of equilibrium once the bulk of selling has taken place.
Looking ahead, only some positive developments within the trade landscape such as negotiations or a walking back of tariffs is likely to help fuel any meaningful recovery. Beyond that, prices look likely to continue lower for now.
Technical Views
BTC
Having broken down to fresh lows for the year, BTC is now testing the $74,655 level (with the 61.8% fib sitting just below). If bulls can hold this region, a recovery could be seen provided price gets back above the $80k mark quickly.
While below there, risks of a further drop towards $65,385 loom large.
Roger Eskinazi, Managing Partner, Tickmill South Africa.
BUSINESS REPORT