Cape Town - As a result of challenges including transport costs and load shedding expected to persist or worsen in 2023, the estimated predictions for local citrus exports show only moderate growth or a decrease when compared with last year.
Ahead of the Southern African 2023 citrus export season kicking off next month, citrus-growing varietal focus groups presented their predicted export volumes for the upcoming season at the Citrus Marketing Forum held last week.
“The 2023 export season comes after an extremely tough year for growers, which resulted in 5.7 million cartons less being packed for export in 2022 (164.8m cartons in total), than what was predicted at the start of the season as well as only one in five growers making a positive return,” Citrus Growers’ Association chief executive Justin Chadwick said.
The challenges faced included a surge in farming input prices and transport costs as well as shipping price hikes which made the cost of getting fruit to market commercially unviable for many growers, the introduction of the new False Coddling Moth (FCM) regulations passed by the EU mid-season, ongoing decay of public infrastructure and an erratic electricity supply.
“As a result of many of these challenges expected to persist in 2023, with some even worsening, such as increased bouts of load shedding and ever-growing input costs, the estimates predictions for a number of varietals show only moderate growth or a decrease when compared to 2022,” Chadwick said.
The current prediction is that 37.3m (15kg) cartons of lemons will be exported to key markets, which is an increase of 2.6m cartons when compared to 2022.
Chadwick said this is a result of younger trees coming into production across a number of regions including the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
However, the recent heavy rains in the Northern parts of the country and hail in Eastern Cape could potentially decrease the overall volumes exported as the impact of these weather events materialises.
Current predictions show a 2.5m decrease in (15kg) cartons of navels that will be shipped during the coming season, with 25.3m cartons expected to be exported in total.
The reason for the decline was that farms in some regions not exporting their fruit. Recent hail storms in the Western Cape have also impacted volumes from the region as well as ongoing load shedding which has impacted farmers’ ability to irrigate crops.
An estimated 54.5m (15kg) cartons of valencias are predicted to be exported in 2023, which will be a 700 000 increase from the 53.8m cartons shipped last season.
Good weather conditions in a number of regions have resulted in the predicted increase in production levels. However, feedback from some markets has revealed a decrease in consumption levels of citrus in some countries, which could impact the final amount shipped.
An estimated 12.7m (17kg) cartons of grapefruit are predicted to be exported during the upcoming season, which is a 2.1m decrease when compared to 2022. One of the reasons for the drop in predicted numbers is that many regions are not planning to pack class 2 and processed-grade fruit for export this year.
“The industry which sustains 140 000 jobs and brings in R30 billion in export revenue enjoyed an upward trajectory over the last few years, but has only achieved moderate growth over the past two years due to the numerous challenges mentioned above.
This trend is expected to continue in 2023, putting the survival of thousands of growers and the jobs they sustain at risk,” Chadwick said.
“At the same time, the local industry offers even further potential as a key exporter and economic contributor with current forecasts predicting that exports could potentially continue to grow by 10m cartons per year for the next decade, hitting 220m tons being shipped overseas in the next five years and up to 260m in the next 10 years.
“This means the industry could potentially sustain a further 100 000 jobs and generate an additional R20bn in annual revenue bringing its total contribution to 240 000 jobs and R50bn in revenue.”
Cape Times