The Donald Trump victory in the US Elections has my news team divided.
Some feel it sets America on a dark path of diminishing women’s rights, growing right-wing Christian fundamentalism, and a drive towards a nationalism that will seek to advance unipolar hegemony.
That last point stands at a stark and jarring disjunct with the goals of BRICS, which seeks to break from Western hegemony and drive multipolarity.
Smack bang in the middle of these opposing agendas is South Africa — a strategic partner of the US, the gateway to Africa as its largest economy. The US is second only to China as South Africa’s largest trading partner.
So what does a Trump victory mean for South Africa in this context?
We all know what Trump is like — when he was the 45th President of the United States of America he behaved like a spoilt toddler, unpredictable in diplomacy, decisive and violent. But when the prospect of a liberal Kamala Harris presented itself as the only other viable option to Trump, America chose the devil it knows.
At least with Trump, you know what you’re going to get. You know what to expect. He’s predictable in his unpredictability.
Trump went up against the establishment, preaching anti-woke rhetoric that spoke to the heart of Middle America, playing on their fears the way one would psyche up an armed force before a daunting battle, or a plucky underdog ice hockey team before the final play-off match. And it worked.
Trump’s charisma and unapologetic bravado and machismo won through.
Compare this to our own lame-duck president Cyril Ramaphosa, flip-flopping his way through critical policy decisions, leading a socialist-founded liberation movement into the pro-business centrist neo-liberal arms of a former opposition party that found diminished support in these last general elections for the establishment of the Government of National Unity.
The ANC and DA are ideologically opposed, but as GNU bedchambermates Ramaphosa allows John Steenhuisen to run rampant and spew statements that run contrary to the government’s position.
In what world can you have a fellow leader of a government claim that an ally like Russia is Cyril’s ally, and not South Africa’s? Would Trump abide such a slap in the face? The DA and ANC disagree on so much, it’s a surprise the Government of National Unity gets anything done.
Cyril’s partners in government stage marches against government’s BELA Bill. Cyril’s partners in government claim victory for things the ANC government set in motion years ago. Cyril’s partners in government would have the GNU put the interests of business over the interests of the people.
Not Trump.
Trump, for all his failings, convictions, misogyny, is a strong, decisive leader. This resonated with American voters.
Cyril, on the other hand, seems to go wherever the wind of opportunity takes him. He’ll smile while shaking Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping’s hands, support Palestine’s bid for freedom, while cosying up to the US even while it backs Israel, and allow Steenhuisen to speak ill of Russia.
A Trump presidency will test Ramaphosa’s resolve in some key areas:
- Trade Relations and AGOA: Trump’s return could bring uncertainty to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade preference program that grants African countries, including South Africa, duty-free access to the US market for various goods. South Africa’s inclusion in AGOA has historically been contentious, and Trump has previously raised issues with South Africa’s trade practices and partners (read: China, Russia and India). Any new tariffs or restrictions on South African exports could impact jobs and economic growth, particularly in sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and automotive industries.
- Foreign Aid and Investment: Trump’s “America First” stance could mean a pullback from foreign aid and a limited US economic footprint in Africa. For South Africa, which benefits from American aid for healthcare and development initiatives, this could mean scaling back programs in areas like HIV/AIDS relief, where US support through PEPFAR (the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) has been significant.
- Global and African Diplomacy: Trump’s return might bring less engagement with multilateral organisations, including the UN and the World Health Organization, potentially limiting global cooperation on issues South Africa prioritises, like climate change and peacekeeping efforts. Ramaphosa, who has championed African interests in these arenas, might find fewer opportunities for collaboration or influence under a Trump administration.
- Geopolitical Shifts and BRICS: Trump’s strained relationship with China could present challenges for South Africa, particularly given our role in BRICS and the growth of the bloc. Ramaphosa has strengthened ties with China and Russia, which might become delicate under a Trump-led US seeking to isolate China and reduce China-Africa engagement.
- Political Image and Pressure: Trump’s victory could embolden populist and conservative groups globally, potentially putting pressure on Ramaphosa’s policies on issues like land reform, social spending, and economic redistribution. With Trump’s unpredictable diplomatic style, South Africa may face increased pressure to align with US positions on some issues, which could complicate its internal policies and its leadership role in African diplomacy.
We have already shown how intricately involved in shaping the narrative through some of South Africa’s captured media the US has become, seeking to break down trust in China and Russia’s involvement here and calling into question South Africa’s devotion to BRICS. Hell, they even accuse media supportive of BRICS of being propaganda mouthpieces for China and Russia, ignoring the massive benefit the strengthening of the bloc will have for South Africans. They do this while they themselves are more concerned with protecting American interests, with shady funding from US-based organisations, some with direct links to the CIA.
Ramaphosa’s darlings will be quick to urge him to build a relationship with Trump, potentially at the cost of strategic partnerships that will benefit South Africa’s people.
Trump has always said he would put America first. I just don’t get the sense from Cyril that he would put South Africa first. And if Ramaphosa chooses to side with the West in the face of Trump’s strong-arm tactics, it could prove his unravelling.
* Lance Witten is the Editor of IOL.