Bo Mbindwane
As the world order fractures and global trade systems descend into Trumpian chaos, South Africa stands at the most consequential economic crossroads since 1994.
Having advised both government and industry through multiple commodity cycles, I can state unequivocally: we are wasting our most powerful geopolitical assets. Our mineral wealth—particularly platinum group metals and manganese—represents both an unparalleled strategic advantage and an existential vulnerability if mishandled.
American Trade Revolution
The Trump administration has abandoned multilateral pretence entirely. Through mechanisms like the "Basket" classification system already being developed in Washington policy circles, nations will be sorted into privileged allies, conditional partners, and outright adversaries. Our BRICS membership and historical non-alignment—once diplomatic assets—now threaten to relegate us to the precarious middle tier, subject to arbitrary tariffs and coercive negotiations.
The Trump administration's first term demonstrated clearly that traditional trade rules will be replaced by transactional power politics. Steel tariffs, AGOA threats, and Huawei-style corporate assassinations will become standard tools. South Africa's automotive exports, mining sector, and entire industrial policy face imminent danger.
Untapped Strategic Arsenal
What makes this moment uniquely perilous—and uniquely promising—is that South Africa controls resources the global economy cannot function without. Our 80% share of global platinum reserves, 90% of rhodium supply, and dominant manganese position constitute economic leverage comparable to Saudi Arabia's oil dominance in the 1970s. Yet we continue exporting these strategic assets as mere commodities rather than wielding them as instruments of national power.
The solution demands bold, coordinated action across three fronts.
South Africa should announce export restrictions on critical minerals. The restrictions should include compelling raw minerals buyers to refine and manufacture their components inside the country. In tandem, we must establish sovereign mineral reserves through the Public Investment Corporation.
With over R2 trillion in assets under management, the PIC possesses both the mandate and capacity to create an R150 billion critical minerals war chest to hold both ETFs and physical minerals from our mines. This strategic accumulation of platinum, rhodium, and manganese inventories—for strategic purposes, shall be a deliberate mechanism to tighten global supply—could drive platinum prices above $2,500/oz while protecting domestic industry from shortages. Currently, sub-economic shafts could be brought back to stream creating over 50 000 jobs this year.
We must also assert control over our resources. The PIC should spearhead a consortium to acquire Anglo American Platinum, ending the absurdity of foreign boards determining the fate of our national assets. This isn't radical economic transformation—it's fundamental economic sovereignty. When Norway's sovereign wealth fund owns more of our mining sector than our pension funds, we have surrendered before the battle begins.
Finally, we need to forge regional alliances that multiply our leverage. A Southern African Critical Minerals Alliance—incorporating the DRC's cobalt, Zimbabwe's lithium, and Namibia's uranium—could coordinate production and pricing policies to rival OPEC's influence over oil markets. This regional cooperation must extend beyond mineral resources to include our maritime assets.
The establishment of a Southern African Shipping and Ports Authority—integrating Angola's harbour, Namibia's Walvis Bay, South Africa's Table Bay and Durban, and Mozambique's Beira—would secure control over the strategic Cape Route. With 30% of global maritime trade traversing these waters, a coordinated regional approach would create a formidable economic counterweight capable of negotiating with any global power from a position of strength.
This maritime alliance must be reinforced by security cooperation on a scale previously unimagined in our region. A permanent joint Southern African Naval Command—drawing vessels and personnel from South Africa, Namibia, Angola, and Mozambique—would protect our shipping lanes from both state and non-state actors.
The Cape Route's strategic value extends beyond commerce to include military significance; whoever controls these waters influences global security architecture. By pooling our naval resources, building shared maritime surveillance capabilities, and conducting joint exercises, we would transform from passive beneficiaries of others' security guarantees to active architects of our destiny.
Cost of Complacency
The alternative is unthinkable but inevitable if we maintain our current course. Allowing the U.S. and China to fight over our resources while we remain passive suppliers will result in exactly what we've seen for decades: value extraction abroad and crumbs at home. AGOA's potential collapse could wipe out R60 billion in exports overnight. Auto sector tariffs would devastate industrial employment. Most damningly, we would squander our last, best opportunity to escape the colonial economic model that still defines our mineral sector.
A Call to National Purpose
South Africa stands at a pivotal moment in its economic history. President Ramaphosa must declare platinum group metals and manganese strategic assets under the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act. The PIC board should initiate Anglo Platinum acquisition talks without delay. Our Mineral Resources Minister must unite regional counterparts to establish the Critical Minerals Alliance before competitors can divide us.
As someone who has navigated the corridors of both corporate power and government policy, I recognize the challenges ahead. But history has shown repeatedly that nations either harness their strategic advantages or watch them slip away. South Africa possesses not just the raw materials that will power the next global economy, but the potential to transform them into lasting prosperity.
The resources are in our soil and waters. The tools are in our hands. The time to act is now.
* Bo Mbindwane is a former Mining Executive and Government Advisor. This article is based on his paper: 'South Africa in a Restructured Global Trading System: Risks, Opportunities and Strategic Options'
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.